Households’ response to economic crisis

This paper studies the economic impact of the current global economic downturn on the household sector. Household budgets can be negatively affected by declines in nominal wages and increases in unemployment. We empirically test this effect for the small open emerging economy. As a result of a lack of individual data on household finances, micro data are simulated. Our analysis clearly shows that there is a significant additional decline in consumption related to an increase in household default rates and unemployment. We find that potential household insolvencies have important implications for the financial system as well as for the macroeconomy.credit cycle; households’ distress; insolvency; household default; aggregate consumption

The Merton Approach to Estimating Loss Given Default: Application to the Czech Republic

This paper focuses on a key credit risk parameter – Loss Given Default (LGD). We illustrate how the LGD can be estimated with the help of an adjusted Mertonian structural approach. We present a derivation of the formula for expected LGD and show its sensitivity analysis with respect to other company structural parameters. Finally, we estimate the five-year expected LGDs for companies listed on Prague Stock Exchange and find that the average LGD for the analyzed sample is around 20–50%.Credit risk, loss given default, structural models.

Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?

This study deals with credit risk modelling and stress testing within the context of a Merton-type one-factor model. We analyse the corporate and household sectors of the Czech Republic and Germany to find determining variables of credit risk in both countries. We find that a set of similar variables explains corporate credit risk in both countries despite substantial differences in the default rate pattern. This does not apply to households, where further research seems to be necessary. Next, we establish a framework for the stress testing of credit risk. We use a country specific stress scenario that shocks macroeconomic variables with medium severity. The test results in credit risk increasing by more than 100% in the Czech Republic and by roughly 40% in Germany. The two outcomes are not fully comparable since the shocks are calibrated according to the historical development of the time series considered and the size of the shocks for the Czech Republic was driven by the transformation period.Credit risk, credit risk modelling, stress testing.

Relationship Lending in the Czech Republic

This paper presents the results of an analysis of data on individual bank loans of nonfinancial corporations in the Czech Republic taken from the CNB’s Central Credit Register. It focuses on the question of how firms obtain financing from domestic banks. The results show that the vast majority of non-financial corporations use the services of just one relationship lender. Small and young firms in technology- and knowledge-intensive industries tend to concentrate their credit needs in a single bank, whereas less creditworthy firms and firms in cyclical industries tend to borrow from more than one bank. The analysis also reveals different behaviour of firms towards financing banks in the case of multiple lenders. Finally, it turns out that the level of credit risk at bank level decreases in line with the extent to which firms applying single relationship lending occur in the bank’s portfolio.Credit risk, relationship banking.

Climate risk assessment of the sovereign bond portfolio of European Insurers

In the first collaboration between climate economists, climate financial risk modellers and financial regulators, we apply the CLIMAFIN framework described in Battiston at al. (2019) to provide a forward-looking climate transition risk assessment of the sovereign bonds’ portfolios of solo insurance companies in Europe. We consider a scenario of a disorderly introduction of climate policies that cannot be fully anticipated and priced in by investors. First, we analyse the shock on the market share and profitability of carbon-intensive and low-carbon activities under climate transition risk scenarios. Second, we define the climate risk management strategy under uncertainty for a risk averse investor that aims to minimise her largest losses. Third, we price the climate policies scenarios in the probability of default of the individual sovereign bonds and in the bonds’ climate spread. Finally, we estimate the largest gains/losses on the insurance companies’ portfolios conditioned to the climate scenarios. We find that the potential impact of a disorderly transition to low-carbon economy on insurers portfolios of sovereign bonds is moderate in terms of its magnitude. However, it is non-negligible in several scenarios. Thus, it should be regularly monitored and assessed given the importance of sovereign bonds in insurers’ investment portfolios

Factors affecting bank loan quality : a panel analysis of emerging markets

This study investigates the factors affecting the loan quality of banking sector in seventeen emerging and developing markets using quarterly panel dataset covering period of 2010–2019 and utilising feasible generalised least square methodology. Our empirical analysis suggests that inflation and lending rates negatively affect the banks’ loan quality measured by non-performing loans. On the contrary, economic growth and capital adequacy show a positive impact on banks’ loan quality. The inclusion of the ratio of net open position in foreign exchange to capital and its’ lagged values, as an additional factor, has marked out this research from other studies. Our results reveal that the ratio has a significant negative impact on loan quality in banking. This finding, as it was also seen in Asian crises of 1997, indicates that the higher the ratio net open position in foreign exchange to capital cause moral hazard problem leading to the higher non-performing loans in banking sectors